A new study of Germany’s paper, office and school supplies market forecasts falling paper use and a major shift to online sales by 2033. The findings have clear implications for the office imaging sector’s volumes, profits and channel strategies.
Paper, office and school supplies sales in Germany are forecast to change dramatically by 2033, according to a new Marketmedia24 study. For the office imaging sector, the implications are clear: less paper use, more online sales, and pressure to adapt channel strategies.
The Sales Performance-REPORT PBS-Branche 2033 report tracks 19 product groups across paper, office and school supplies, and writing instruments. It analyses sales from 2013 to 2023 and projects developments to 2033 under trend, best-case and worst-case scenarios.
Copy and printing paper sales fell steadily before COVID-19, down an average of 0.3% a year from 2013 to 2019. The pandemic caused sharp declines, with some categories dropping more than 25%. By 2023, volumes had not fully recovered, despite pockets of growth such as school notebooks.
By 2033, online sales are expected to hold 31% market share, overtaking specialist retail. Wholesale is forecast to remain the largest channel, but growth will slow.
For the imaging consumables sector, the trends have a clear message. Declining paper use mirrors falling print output. Volume will still come from supplying wholesale, but profit opportunities are likely to shift towards online and direct channels.
“Strength wins volume, but smarts win profit,” one remanufacturer told The Recycler. “We can’t wait until 2033 to adjust.”
While the PBS data focuses on Germany, supporting research from Cepi and Smithers shows similar patterns across Europe, with double-digit drops in graphic paper use and long-term print volumes trending down. The next decade will be about adapting to a shift from print to online.
The full PBS-Branche 2033 report is available from Marketmedia24, priced at €650 ($758), via marketmedia24.de.
